QUOTE (FionaK @ 5/6/2015, 01:48)
https://sturdyblog.wordpress.com/2015/06/0...-to-all-of-you/This is an interesting perspective on the situation with regard to Greece, now. The writer is Greek and spends much of his time in the UK, but I gather is in Greece now and has at least some feeling for the mood of the people in his own part of the country, presumably. And a better grasp of how things are seen there than the usual commentators, presumable
The piece makes some interesting points, and I would like to comment on some of them, to make them perhaps even more explicit.
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1. The crisis is not an economic, but a political one.
This seems to be the most crucial one, and all the other points are derived from this central point. And the author is completely correct in pointing us to it, though perhaps it is unfair to deny the economic catastrophe, which is how he phrased it.
In the public debate, the debt crisis is seldomly discussed in terms of politics, but rather in terms of budgets and who owes what. They are meaningless statistics without a political analysis. I do not know how much money would be structurally set apart to "save" Greece, and whether or not that is indeed negligable in the European budget, as the author suggested. If it is hundreds of millions of euros that are paid by other European taxpayers, it's a big deal, no matter the size of the total budget, and I suspect that the author's stance is an unhelpful simplification. But you should be asking the right questions about this money. If it is to repay debts, we may first want to discover who it is really owed to and why it is important that they be repaid, especially given the difficulty in raising the funds - which is a financial problem that requires a political judgment. If it is money needed for investment and upkeep, we need to also take into account returns and feedback effects - a political question that can benefit from a thorough economic analysis. Ultimately however, after the projections and budgets and options have been scanned, a choice on the matter has to be made, and we won't quite know what will happen in the future, whether we choose to do nothing, or to turn the wheel radically. This is political.
On the other hand, the (global) financial system cannot be denied. It is in place in a certain way, and therefore has effects, even if you decide to phase out all the money in whatever area you can effectively politically influence. The Tsipras government, from what I gather, has not been able to deliver (yet?) on their promise to renegotiate the deals made with the Troika (IMF/EU/ECB), and this has disappointed many people. But the debt- and financial system of Greece is tied in with that of Europe and the world in complex imaginary and real-world ways. Whatever is decided in Greece has effects on this larger context - some very hard to foresee; for me at least - and it may also have to be repeated for other countries that are in a similar debt conundrum right now, Spain being the most likely next candidate. There is probably not going to be a simple answer like cut all debts and see what happens. We aren't sure what will happen to investment, capital, the euro, and the European financial system, when moral political choices are imposed on this (section of a) rotten, but existing economic structure. Then again, perhaps a simplisticly brutal solution is just what this Gordian knot needs??
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2. The measures being counter-proposed by the EU are undeliverable and punitive.
They are simply terrible policy proposals, that seem out of place in a negotiation about purely financial matters, which we estiblished before it is indeed not. However, even though I accept that politics should be part of the discussion, I do not think that the EU or any other international organization is correct in imposing certain political choices on a sovereign state in return for financial aid. I'm not saying that the EU should be happy to give money to whoever asks, but I am disturbed by the tit-for-tat take-it-or-leave-it negotiation style. We're not talking about two independent individuals exchanging goods and services. These are sovereign nations with interlocking economic markets, joined into a union of cooperation. For one side in the negotiations to just haggle over strange proposals to the other until he says yes is freakishly simplistic.
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3. The entrenched position of the players has to do with domestic rather than international policies.
It seems to me that we are in a weird constellation that I have yet to see explained, in which all policy makers in the European countries that I know of, are some local versions of right wing neoliberals. That is why the enacted policies align against Greece.
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4. A fundamental misjudgment of Syriza in general and Tsipras in particular.
I would not give him too much praise, just yet. The party is rapidly transforming, evidenced for example by its congress voting out the intention to nationalize banks. That is not to say that by doing that they are now no longer left or radical, but banks are a rather central part in this situation, and it seems sensible to keep such an option firmly on the table. Or let me put it differently: I can't quite imagine why a left radical party would take it off, except as to appear reasonable to centrists.
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5. A Grexit would be disastrous for the EU.
I just don't know about this, and I mean that both as a denial of knowledge and as a refusal to go along with the story that the author sketches. I think a "Grexit" can have many shapes, and, while it isn't unimaginably that the rest of the EU leaders will push Greece off vindictively, maybe as a deterrent, there's for example a chance that will fail. Too many branching things can happen. Maybe China swoops in, however that takes shape, or Russia. And maybe tensions will ease around the Black Sea and Turkey as a result?? Or maybe no swooping. Maybe trade will pick up with Egypt and other North African and Eastern Mediteranean countries. Makes some sense with all the refugees present to establish ties.
A Grexit will be disastrous, chaotic and traumatic for Greece, but if I may be permitted to be naively optimistic all of a sudden, they may overcome the difficulties and come out the other end very differently - at least without some union making unilateral demands for regressive taxes for example?
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6. There was an underestimation of popular support for Syriza and misunderstanding of the mood in Greece.
This is surprising and positive.
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7. Greeks are busiest in the summer.
I'm on a plane there tomorrow, for 2 weeks.
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The reason this matters to all is twofold. First, it forces out into the open and brings into sharp contrast the increasing divergence between the wellbeing of markets and the wellbeing of populations. Second, it marks a clear act of economic blackmail by a global de facto establishment – let’s call it “The Davos Set” – unhappy at a democratic people opting for an alternative to neoliberalism.
How these tensions resolve themselves will determine whether national elections remain meaningful in any way; whether democratic change is possible or violent revolution is in fact the only effective option.
Important.
