Cameron and a Scottish Referendum

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FionaK
view post Posted on 27/3/2013, 14:04




QUOTE (FionaK @ 28/1/2013, 00:49) 
By Jove, I think she's got it!

Ruth Davidson is the leader of the Scottish Conservative party. She said something astonishing a couple of days ago:

QUOTE
Ms Davidson said Scots understood the Tory message but, in too many cases, "they didn't like what they were hearing".

Well done, that woman!!

Ruth Davidson has gone further. She has made a speech and it is reported in the The Guardian, here:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/ma...7&commentpage=1

According to the media there is only about 30% support for Scottish Independence and the referendum will vote NO by a substantial margin. It is therefore curious to find that all three UK mainstream parties are promising more devolution should that be the outcome. You have to wonder why they would do that, don't you?

You may recall that there was some controversy about what would be put to the Scottish people: and Mr Cameron claimed a victory when it was decided there would be only two options: independence of not. At that time the polls suggested that a majority favoured what is called "devo max" and that option was ruled out as part of the vote. Presumably Mr Cameron calculate that those who favoured that option would vote No if they could not vote for what they actually wanted. But those people want real change in favour of more autonomy, presumably: and it seems to me that it was at least as likely they would vote against the status quo if they had to choose. It is not unreasonable to suppose that this is what the tory polling is telling them, else why now shift so comprehensively: after all, to say they have been on the "wrong side of history" is pretty sweeping.

It might be thought that this new policy is giving those "devo max" voters what they want: but many in Scotland remember that this has been promised by the Tories before when there was a prospect of greater autonomy: and as soon as the vote was over (in 1979) all those vague promises were forgotten.

If this is a serious policy change then I note that the UK government can pass some of that legislation right now: there is no need to wait for the outcome of the vote and if they do not do that it tells you all you need to know about the status of this froth.

However it seems to me that this is an indication that despite their denial those who oppose independence are at least anxious about how this vote will go: their much vaunted polls notwithstanding. I am not sure what effect that will have: it may help them to get the No vote out. But it is also possible that it will encourage the undecided to vote yes: for there is probably some element amongst that position who are still doubtful whether Scotland can survive as an independent nation: and if this speech is taken at face value it implies that with taxation rights and without control of the oil revenue (for that is not mentioned) Scotland will be able to function within the UK: why not outside it in that case?
 
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FionaK
view post Posted on 27/3/2013, 16:03




http://wingsoverscotland.com/workfare-for-holyrood/

A piece about Ms Davidson's speech from a site which favours independence. Still worth reading, however, as it is not fact free
 
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FionaK
view post Posted on 11/7/2013, 01:02




http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk-news/2013/jul...nd-independence

So, first we were told that Scotland will not vote for independence and so no contingency plans for how things might be if the vote was yes were being made or discussed

Then we were told that if we should vote yes the nuclear submarines would be moved to Devonport. Subsequently that was taken off the agenda because, not suprisingly, the people in that area don't fancy being a target and are not happy about the consequences of an accident. Perfectly understandable: we don't want those things either.

Next up, should we vote yes we would have to pay for the privilege of not having nuclear submarines in our country, and it would cost a fortune.

And now the MOD is suggesting that part of our country, at Faslane, should be designated part of the sovereign territory of what is left of the UK if Scotland should vote for independence.

I don't know whether to laugh or spit, but the smell of desperation is likely to choke me
 
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FionaK
view post Posted on 11/7/2013, 10:31




I am told that Cameron's office has issued a statement saying this report is complete nonsense: well he got that right and that may be a first!. Well done, Mr Cameron
 
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FionaK
view post Posted on 12/7/2013, 10:43




http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons...orm%20Paper.pdf


The link is to a paper on land ownership in Scotand. It is quite an eye-opener if you are wondering how the rich manage to stay that way.

This is tainted at least to the extent that the driver is a need to make people accept "fiscal consolidation" (for which read austerity) and the perception that it will be easier if the wealthy are seen to pay proper tax and lose some subsidies. But despite the underlying agenda this is long overdue. As the paper says,10% of all land in Scotland is in public ownership. Of the remaining 90% half is owned by just 432 people. The arrangements they make to ensure that we do not really know who owns what; the sheer scale of public subsidy they are given;and the tax avoidance arrangements they make are covered in some detail.

QUOTE
Scotland has the most concentrated pattern of private land ownership in the developed world

From time to time there is some fuss about this but nothing ever gets done and for some reason our much vaunted free press is not overly concerned to bring it to our attention.
 
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FionaK
view post Posted on 18/2/2014, 23:14




On the day that Edward Snowden was elected as rector of Glasgow University; and youtube took down a vid of a BBC news interview with Alistair Darling (who got a bit angry when asked some softball question about Scottish independence) on grounds of copyright infringement

http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-news-is-n...#comment-807665

someone at wings over scotland posted this Frank Zappa song. So I thought I would share it here

Video
 
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FionaK
view post Posted on 23/2/2014, 11:59




http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/up...undaypapers.jpg

Really liked this political cartoon so I thought I would post it here
 
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FionaK
view post Posted on 25/2/2014, 02:06




Video

This is a good presentation to counter some of the scare stories promulgated by the self described "Project Fear" to encourage Scots to vote No in the independence referendum. We are apparently the only country in the world that is better off being run in someone else's interest. Only we aren't
 
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FionaK
view post Posted on 5/3/2014, 03:30




I am just storing this partial post here because it is too late for me to finish it tonight and I want to think it through some more before posting it on another board where it properly belongs. So it is not for this board at all and I apologise for this abuse of the thread.

@Xaracen

Business for Scotland paper estimates that Scotland will gain £80 billion immediately if it is not responsible for that debt: so let us go with that figure.

It is not at all clear what that means, as I hope I made obvious in my post. But you are correct that the cost of servicing UK debt is nothing like as high as that would imply. In fact the cost of interest on that debt was about £43 billion in 2013. Scotland pays about £4 billion of that sum. A great deal of that debt is index linked so both the interest and the capital increase over time (interestingly it is index linked to the RPI and not the CPI, but that is an aside). But those figures are not really reliable because it depends on how the debt is measured and the ONS excludes some liabilities. Net public debt is, according to the ONS £1.3 trillion (see previous links. However that excludes eg, the money committed for the bank bailouts. When they are included net debt comes to £2.3 trillion

What is certainly true is that the cost of borrowing to the UK is very low, given the high level of the debt. And that is entirely due to the fact that the UK has a sovereign currency and so there is no liquidity crisis in prospect.

In my previous post I was really trying to show why foreign denominated debt is a bad idea and I apologise for the fact that I just took the business for scotland figure and did not go for real ones.

Ivan McKee presented some of the figures and this was linked in another thread: here it is again

Video

As you see the Scottish government has income of about £57 billion at present and GDP is £151 billion. It pays £4 billion in debt interest, and that is a large part of the total Scottish deficit of around £7 billion. Arguably the income of the Scottish government post independence would be higher. Mckee estimates about £4.4 billion higher, so let us go with that: government income would be £61.4 billion.

Accepting 10% of the acknowledged debt means accepting £96 billion of foreign denominated debt, as outlined above. Scotland would therefore have a debt to GDP ratio of around 63.5% if all other liabilities were excluded. If they were included the debt share would be 10% of total net liabilities of £1347 billion: that is £134 billion: a debt to GDP ratio of 88%. So we would start with a very poor position if debt to GDP matters to you (it doesn't to me but this discussion is predicated on the mainstream view so we have to accept that for the sake of the argument)

All of that debt would be in a foreign currency. We would have to get sterling to pay it. Let us imagine that the debt service requires the same £4 billion it does at the moment. In 2011 Scotland exported nearly half of its GDP, so if that has continued this year it would export £75.5 billion, of which 60% would generate sterling: £45 billion in total. In 2011 Scotland imported 55% of GDP and 70% of that was from the rest of the UK.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/syst...performance.pdf

(Annex A)

So goods bought from the UK would cost £58 billion and those would be paid for in sterling. It follows that Scotland would have to find the difference plus the interest, that is £17 billion, all of which would have to be borrowed, or bought using currency acquired from exports to the rest of the world, if there was no currency union. Which is where the income of the Scottish government comes in.
 
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FionaK
view post Posted on 19/3/2014, 11:51




Scottish labour have put out their proposals for further devolution in order to persuade people to vote No in the referendum

So Johann Lamont (the profoundly embarrassing leader of the labour party in Scotland) was interviewed on Newsnight Scotland about those proposals.

Want to see a car crash?

Video
 
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FionaK
view post Posted on 25/3/2014, 23:24




http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/up...bannedbyspt.jpg

That is the advert which was put up on Glasgow's subways yesterday. It has now been taken down on the grounds that it is political.

I am surprised that factual comment on our "free" press is now subject to censorship. Well, actually, I am not.

ETA: This, on the other hand, was distributed in Glasgow's subways today: apparently it is not political

http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/up...fferentview.jpg

Edited by FionaK - 26/3/2014, 10:40
 
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FionaK
view post Posted on 8/4/2014, 10:23




One of the abiding mysteries of UK politics is why our most prominent politicians and media people are so very pro American in their outlook. The talk of a "special relationship" is bad enough: but the spectacle of the "Anglo American" model which pervades our economic policy and our foreign policy and much of our cultural life is peculiar. We are, after all, a European country: yet we hear relatively little about Europe, and most of what we do hear is not good.

I mentioned in another thread that some of our young graduates, identified as likely to be future leaders, are offered something called a Kennedy Fellowship. But I did not know that this kind of thing does not stop there. It seems there is also something called the British American Project

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British-Ameri...ct#Organisation

"A US BAP organiser describes the BAP network as committed to “grooming leaders” while promoting “the leading global role that [the US and Britain] continue to play”

I do not wish to get all conspiratorial about this: there are some in public life who promote British Israeli friendship and there are those who promote British Arab relations and relations with Europe etc. But there are none which boast so many prominent figures as the BAP does, I think

Why do I mention this now? Why in this thread?

Well those of you who take no interest in the forthcoming referendum on Scottish indpendence will have missed some of the recent rows which made news here. But they are not without interest

Recently the three main UK parties made a big splash about the fact that they are all agreed that should Scotland vote yes the rUK will not agree to a currency union. It is shorthanded as "Scotland will not be able to use the £" and it is important because it is the policy of the SNP, and therefore of the current Scottish Government, that they will seek monetary union if the vote is Yes. The media made huge play of this and it seems that they expected this to have a big effect on public opinion and on voting intentions. The decision was unequivocal, and Mr Osborne took the very unusual step of publishing Treasury advice in support of that decision: something virtually unheard of in our system.

In the event it had none of the impact they expected it to have, at least according to the polls: not on Scottish people. We cannot be sure why not but there are a number of things which may be in play. For one, those same polls show that the people do not believe it, or much else that comes out of their mouths. For another, people are not so wedded to the £ as they appear to have believed: or at least not to the £ in a CU. they are aware that anyone can use the £ as a freely traded currency. Some people are not voting on the basis of such technicalities, which they don't necessarily understand anyway. And some of us, myself included, don't agree with the policy anyway and would prefer an independent Scottish currency

Whatever the reasons for the lack of impact there have been a few further developments in this odd story. First, an anonymous politician, claimed to be a senior tory, told The Guardian that this was not in fact a firm commitment and that "of course" there would be a CU: all things would be up for negotiation if the vote was yes, he said: and that is in line with what many people thought. But the interesting thing about this is that senior government ministers do not undermine such a major plank of policy, one with apparent cross party support, by accident. Nor was it without potential political cost in rUK: because at least some of the people there took this statement very seriously indeed and are basically saying that the rUK parties will renege on this over their dead bodies.

So why did this happen? We can only guess: but one thing that was said by this anonymous minister was that Scotland wants a CU, and rUK wants to keep Trident at Faslane so "you could see the outlines of a deal".

This led me to think again about why the rUK is so keen to discourage a yes vote: after all we are told that Scotland is a drain on UK resource - we are subsidy junkies, as was discussed on the first page of this thread.

I have reasons aplenty to believe that is a lie: but the fact remains that there will be economic consequences if Scotland chooses independence, for both countries. It is likely to be a bumpy ride. Yet they are not insurmountable in the scheme of things. Not sufficient to justify the virtually universal opposition to independence in the UK political and media world

But they have nowhere to put Trident. And the SNP and the Scottish Government have been very consistent in saying that if Scotland becomes independent Trident must be removed from this country. I now believe that is actually one of two main reasons for that opposition, along with loss of the oil revenue.

I am somewhat confirmed in my view by a speech Lord Robertson made to the Brookings Institute and which is reported here

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/brookings-n...-united-kingdom

This is funny in some ways. You may not be aware of it but those who are telling us to vote No are members of the white queen tendency: they can all believe 6 impossible things before breakfast. This is one of them.

Normally Scots are told that if we choose independence we will lose all influence in the world because all such influence depends on our membership of the UK. We ride on the coat-tails of that entity and if we vote to dissolve the union we will become like some small insignificant country like, oh, say Montenegro in terms of influence on the world stage. An outcome some of us embrace with enthusiasm because we have no wish to follow America into immoral foreign wars, nor to "punch above our weight" as the UK politicians so fondly believe that they do.

Now Lord Robertson says that this is not only untrue: but that Scottish indepenence will threaten the stability of the whole western world. Ooooheerrrr! Never knew we had such influence, and that is largely because for my whole life the rUK has been saying we are too small and too poor to do anything much at all.

Robertson's proposition is absurd on its face. It is yet another example of what can at best be described as the confusion at the heart of the unionist stance. It is also yet another example of a recurring theme: which is that my vote should be predicated on the needs and wishes of others, and not on what is good for me and mine. It is nothing less than hilarious to find neoliberal politicians relying on the altruism their creed says does not exist.

Seems the third world war will be Scotland's fault if we vote yes. It is a hell of a responsibility: or it might be a lie. Whaddaya think?
 
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FionaK
view post Posted on 16/4/2014, 13:46




Two more examples of the kind of arguments being made by the Unionist side: I am bringing these here because it occurs to me that people outside the UK may not realise just how silly this has become. It is a little embarrassing but you really should know what they are prepared to say in order to persuade us to vote No

First up: Justine Greening, Secretary of State for International Development, has warned us that a vote for Scottish independence will cause "some of the world's poorest people to suffer"

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-...orest-1-3375293

Won't someone think of the starving babies?

Next there is this:

http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/up...cethreatbig.jpg

from the Daily Mail.

An independent Scotland will be at risk of attack from space, and there won't be a thing we can do about it! So we better vote No.

I am not making this up: the unionists are!
 
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FionaK
view post Posted on 19/4/2014, 10:46




Mass movements need songs, IMO. The great ones are a big part of how ordinary people transmit their history and counter the historical narrative which is adopted by the powers that be, as I have written about before.

The unionists are generating ridiculous stories at a quite astonishing rate, and so some people are, as is usual, countering that in songs.

I already posted Lady Alba's Voting Naw, which is quite popular here and quite clever: but she is not alone. A group called Yew Choob is taking the same route.

One of the main failed iniatives from the unionists is to demonise their oppositon, and to this end they have been calling those who support independence "Cybernats" for a long time now. The implication, as always, is that we are a bunch of extreme fanatics wholly unrepresentative of scottish opinion and over represented on the internet whenever the subject comes up. That would be me, then

So here is Yew Choob's answer to this

Video
 
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FionaK
view post Posted on 22/4/2014, 17:36




Mr Cameron came over all religious last week: and I thought patriotism was the last refuge of a scoundrel, too.

So it was interesting to read this:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/polit...en-9274303.html

It is not April the first, so it cannot be an April fool article. It seems that our prime minister, newly evangelical as he is, got his office staff to call the police to deal with the threat from the Bishop of Oxford and another reverend gentleman, who wanted to deliver a letter about the horror that is food banks in this country

I feel sorry for the police officers: I don't suppose they joined up to protect the state from the terror which anglican priests so clearly represent....

What a tube that man is.
 
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