Cameron and a Scottish Referendum

Ruth Davidson has gone further. She has made a speech and it is reported in the The Guardian, here:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/ma...7&commentpage=1

According to the media there is only about 30% support for Scottish Independence and the referendum will vote NO by a substantial margin. It is therefore curious to find that all three UK mainstream parties are promising more devolution should that be the outcome. You have to wonder why they would do that, don't you?

You may recall that there was some controversy about what would be put to the Scottish people: and Mr Cameron claimed a victory when it was decided there would be only two options: independence of not. At that time the polls suggested that a majority favoured what is called "devo max" and that option was ruled out as part of the vote. Presumably Mr Cameron calculate that those who favoured that option would vote No if they could not vote for what they actually wanted. But those people want real change in favour of more autonomy, presumably: and it seems to me that it was at least as likely they would vote against the status quo if they had to choose. It is not unreasonable to suppose that this is what the tory polling is telling them, else why now shift so comprehensively: after all, to say they have been on the "wrong side of history" is pretty sweeping.

It might be thought that this new policy is giving those "devo max" voters what they want: but many in Scotland remember that this has been promised by the Tories before when there was a prospect of greater autonomy: and as soon as the vote was over (in 1979) all those vague promises were forgotten.

If this is a serious policy change then I note that the UK government can pass some of that legislation right now: there is no need to wait for the outcome of the vote and if they do not do that it tells you all you need to know about the status of this froth.

However it seems to me that this is an indication that despite their denial those who oppose independence are at least anxious about how this vote will go: their much vaunted polls notwithstanding. I am not sure what effect that will have: it may help them to get the No vote out. But it is also possible that it will encourage the undecided to vote yes: for there is probably some element amongst that position who are still doubtful whether Scotland can survive as an independent nation: and if this speech is taken at face value it implies that with taxation rights and without control of the oil revenue (for that is not mentioned) Scotland will be able to function within the UK: why not outside it in that case?