| I think it is a mistake to underestimate the loyalty of the labour vote. The party has been tory for many years, certainly since Blair was leader. Many of us who were formerly labour supporters have been aware of this, and have removed our support years ago. But the labour vote is still quite solid and it seems to me that the label and the tribal loyalty outweigh the actions of the party. In short that vote is not rational, in many instances.
It is true that those of us who voted yes will not support the labour party as currently constituted. But that is not a majority of their support and nothing has changed for those labour voters who voted no. I do not think we represent the threat to labour that many here suppose. I hope I may be wrong.
Nor do I think it is true that there was too much focus on socialism, though that was certainly a strong thread in the yes campaign. How could it be otherwise when we had so few tories supporting independence? But for myself I have consistently argued in favour of a return to the post war consensus and for me that is also a return to the kind of tory party which was in existence from 1945 to the mid 1970's. I take the view that most scottish conservatives want that kind of tory party and that this accounts for the catastrophic fall in the conservative vote in Scotland: the decline preceded the rise of the neocons but it increased thereafter. It is my view that both labour and tory parties abandoned their supporters after 1979, and the tory vote was much quicker to recognise that and to act on it than was labour. Which is to their credit.
Had we secured independence I was confident that we would see revitalised tory and labour parties which reflected the consensus values of the post war period in Scotland. That will not happen now. The rhetoric of both will continue to pretend those values are still in play: but what they do will continue to be utterly at odds with what they say. However the very fact that they pay lip service to those values tells me that they understand they have to do that: and that is true in rUK as well, though perhaps less so.
The Scottish government remains popular not because it is socialist: it is very far from that. It is popular because it espouses those post war consensus values. Those policies are the outcome of the British self perception: the much vaunted rejection of "extremes" and the good old british "compromise", which is promoted as a national trait and is a source of national pride.
The rise of the neocons is partly founded on their success in shifting the middle ground to the right. Unfortunately the very value placed on compromise has contributed to that because people have not analysed the content: they have presumed that the middle ground is the correct place to be no matter where that ground is now. That is why the rhetoric has not changed to reflect the true position. That is why the neoliberal parties are still described as "centre left" and "centre right". That is why they all have some version of "we are all in it together".
This, I think, is what needs to be challenged openly. This is where the potential for undermining the red tories lies. This is what the SG has demonstrated in practice and it is why they have support from many who will not vote for independence. It is described upthread as "self interest", most notably by heedtracker. And it is self interest. But it is also a true expression of the consensus politics I am talking about, and it is not devoid of care for others. For that kind of self interest benefits the whole of society, as neoliberal policy cannot.
Consensus of that sort does not mean agreement: it does not mean that everyone's interest are aligned, as neoliberals pretend. Rather it is a recognition that our interests are in direct conflict and that nobody can get all they want: it is the essence of the compromise which is so highly prized in our value system.
It is unfortunate that the independence movement has perhaps fallen victim to its own success, insofar as the popular policies have led some to feel that things are all right as they are. I have certainly talked to some no voters who honestly think that we have "the best of both worlds" now: the bus passes and the free prescriptions etc are valued. As they are a consequence (to some extent) of higher public spending in this country compared to rUK, we do not see what we do not have in order to provide them. And so people do not see a trade off. They assume these things are secure.
They vote SNP because they consider this is the face of good government: but they do not relate that to the wider economic picture. In particular they do not grasp that it is just that more is spent here because more is contributed: and that is because they do not pay more tax directly or even indirectly:the higher contribution per head in Scotland is largely derived from the oil companies and not from the people.
That fact is also the basis for dissatisfaction in the rUK: they do not accept it is Scotland's oil and so to them it is unjust and they feel they are subsidising us. You can see where they are coming from, though they are singularly incurious about similar disparities between the english regions and in particular the heavy subsidy to London, which is not subject to the Barnett formula but derives from those things which are characterised as spending for the whole of the UK.
I believe there is a large constituency which still fondly imagines the values of the post war consensus are shared by all: and a growing group across the UK who begin to understand they have been utterly abandoned by all of the mainstream parties. But this is the ground which is fertile, it seems to me.
We lost the chance of independence: we must accept that, I think, for a long time to come. No voters have not changed, yet. But they will suffer under the neoliberal hegemony because those people do not share the values which I honestly believe are still held by most. They cannot hide forever the fact that the kind of society they want will impoverish the majority by design: not just the very poor, but the middle classes, as well. It is already happening and they can't explain it away forever.
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